CIS - Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas

WHAT IS THE DELPHI METHOD

The Delphi method is based on the conviction that a group of experts in a given subject has a greater capacity to make certain forecasts than a single expert considered in isolation. For this reason, this method has a diversity of experts who make the forecasts considered by approximations and through anonymous knowledge of the forecasts of others.

That is, the Delphi method is articulated in a complex way in several phases or stages. It is neither a survey nor an analysis or discussion group, but rather it has methodological characteristics and uses qualitative and quantitative approaches at the same time, since it uses specially qualified and individualized people who provide an expert opinion and who are shared in a second phase of the Delphi Surveys. And, at the same time, information is collected that can be computed and contrasted. Therefore, in the end, concrete quantified data is obtained.

DELPHI 2021 STUDY ON SOCIAL, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC TRENDS, SCIENTIFIC-TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND TRENDS IN MENTAL HEALTH.

The Delphi methodology has been used in this case to determine the probability of certain events and changes occurring, and to evaluate their importance in a time horizon estimated at a decade for major trends, and in more precise periods for each of the innovations. specific conditions considered (horizons 2025, 2030, 2035, 2050). This Prospective Study on Scientific-Technological Trends, Social, Political and Economic Trends, as well as Mental Health, has been based on the application of 7 Delphi Surveys circulated among experts in Human Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Information and Communication Technologies , in Robotics and Advanced Automation, in Economics, in Sociology, in Political Science and in Mental Health.

The Delphi methodology has been considered the most appropriate for the purpose of this study, since in each of the major thematic areas addressed, Spain has highly qualified experts who have direct information on the issues considered.

As a whole, then, this Delphi Study provides especially useful information to better understand and interpret what is currently happening in our societies and its main trends under the impacts of COVID-19.

You can access this study, cataloged with code 11002, from the CIS website by 'Latest studies' or directly through this link 'Study information'.

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