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Press release
Madrid, 14 February 2022
Nota de prensa
The results of the elections held on February 13 in Castilla y León have shown that the forecasts of some polling companies that predicted a large majority of votes and seats for the PP have not come true. In fact, the PSOE has obtained 30.1% of the votes, exactly the same as estimated by the CIS pre-election survey, completed on January 22 (22 days before the vote), and seven tenths less than the Flash Survey, ended on February 2 (11 days before), with 28 seats, a figure within the estimated range. Likewise, the PP has obtained 31.4% of the votes, with a deviation of 1.6 tenths with respect to the last estimate made by the CIS, which is within the theoretical margins of error in a statistical sample such as the one was used, with a number of seats (31) that is also within the estimated range (27-32).
The votes and seats obtained by VOX have been significantly higher, not only than the estimates of the CIS, but also of most of the published surveys, while in the case of the three parties of the Emptied Spain bloc the figures of seats have been exactly those estimated by the CIS.
In relation to some debates and statements made about the CIS surveys, in the heat of electoral debates, the CIS must remember that it is not the purpose or mission of this organization to enter into debates with companies and social media that carry out other pre-election surveys, But he does want to ask that when comparisons and criticisms are made about these surveys, critics stick to the real data from the CIS surveys, and not to other invented ones. In this sense, the data from the CIS surveys are published in full detail on its website, with very detailed warnings and specifications that highlight that these surveys must be interpreted and evaluated within the framework of what sociological research really is, with some theoretical margins of error that correspond to the size of the samples and the rigor of the field work carried out. With a validity that can never be claimed to go beyond the moment in which the field work was carried out, as is typical of a research activity located at the level of scientific procedure, and not at that of magic and/or divination. .
| CIS | ||||||
| PRE-LECTORAL SURVEY
7-22/1 |
FLASH SURVEY
1/27 – 2/2 |
RESULT 13F | ||||
| PSOE | 30.8% | 25/34 | 30.1% | 29/34 | 30.05% | 28 |
| PP | 29.8% | 27/32 | 29.7% | 24/30 | 31.43% | 31 |
| cs | 7.9% | 2/5 | 7.6% | 2/5 | 4.49% | 1 |
| U.P. | 8.7% | 3/5 | 7.2% | 2/4 | 5.08% | 1 |
| VOX | 9.3% | 4/8 | 11.0% | 8/9 | 17.64% | 13 |
| XAVILA | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2% | 1/2 | 1.15% | 1 |
| SORIA NOW | 1.6% | 23 | 1.9% | 23 | 1.53% | 3 |
| UPL | 4.0% | 23 | 4.6% | 23 | 4.3% | 3 |
Esta información puede ser usada en parte o en su integridad sin necesidad de citar fuentes.
C/ Montalbán, 8
28014 Madrid
Email: comunicacion@cis.es
Tlf.: 91.580.76.25
Fax: 91.531.81.31
