CIS - Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas

• According to the pre-election survey for the Catalan elections, the PSC would achieve between 39 and 40 seats, Esquerra Republicana between 27 and 28, and Junts between 28 and 30
• The PSC-PSOE candidate, Salvador Illa, is the best rated by Catalans with 5.35
• 36.2% affirm that they will decide their vote during the last week of the campaign, of which 14.2% during the day of reflection and on election day itself
• 37.6% of Catalans believe that the Amnesty Law has contributed to improving coexistence in Catalonia

The CIS has carried out the pre-election survey for the elections that will be held in Catalonia on May 12. The PSC-PSOE would be the first force and would achieve between 26.9% and 28.3%, ERC would obtain between 17.7% and 19.5% and Junts would reach between 16.3% and 18.1%.

The Popular Party would be the fourth force with an estimate of 9.2% and 10.6%. VOX would remain between the estimated 6.3% and 7.5% in percentage of the vote. In Commons Add between 5.5% and 6.4%. The CUP with between 3.7% and 4.6%. And Aliança Catalana, between 2.6% and 3.4%.

44.4% of Catalans acknowledge that they are following the news and topics related to the upcoming elections with “a lot or quite a lot of interest”, compared to 54.5% who say they have “little or no interest”.

When voting

The issues specific to Catalonia will be the most important thing for 65% of Catalans when it comes to voting, while the issues specific to Spain will be what marks the decision of 26.5% of voters. 5.6% affirm that they will take into account both the problems of the country and those of the community.

For Catalans, the political party is more important when voting in these elections (60.8%), than the candidate presented by the party (25.9%). 3.5% assure that they give the same importance to the party as to the candidate. And only 1.8% will give greater importance to the electoral program.

Fidelity and voting decision

19% of Catalans affirm that they always vote for the same party, 25.3% that they generally “tend to” always vote for the same party and 51.2% according to “whatever suits them most at that moment” , they vote for one party or another, or they don't vote.

48% affirm that they decide their vote long before the start of the electoral campaign, 12.4% do so at the beginning of the campaign, 22% during the last week of the campaign, 7% during the day of reflection and a 7.2% on the same day of the elections. Furthermore, 1.5% are already clear that they will abstain.

Furthermore, 72.3% of Catalans assure that they will go to vote “with complete certainty” on May 12.

Management of the Catalan Government

Regarding the management of ERC at the head of the government, 30.7% believe that it has been “very good or good”, compared to 58.9% who say that it has been “bad or very bad”. 7.8% think it's fair.

As for the opposition, the best valued work is that of the PSC, since for 34% of Catalans it has been “very good or good”, as for that of Junts, only 17.2% consider that they have done a “very good or good” job. Regarding the opposition of En Comú Podem, 27.1% consider that they have done a “very good or good” job. And that of the PP has been “very good or good” for 14.8%.

Regarding the political situation, 21.7% believe that it is now “better or much better” than 3 years ago, but 42.7% assure that it is worse. And 34.4% believe it is the same. Regarding the economic situation, only 17.6% say that it is “better or much better” than 3 years ago, 35.2% believe that it is “worse or much worse” and 37.8% say that it is equal.

PSC, the party most capable of governing in Catalonia

The PSC is the party “most capable of governing in Catalonia”, with a percentage of 26%. ERC is the party that “best defends the interests of Catalonia” for 22% of those surveyed. And the PSC is the one that “best represents the people's ideas” for 21.8%.

amnesty law

37.6% of Catalans believe that the Amnesty Law has contributed to improving coexistence in Catalonia, 36.1% say that the situation remains the same and 23.8% believe that it has worsened.

46% say they “feel as Spanish as they do Catalan”, 21.8% say they “feel more Catalan than Spanish”, 17.3% feel “only Catalan” and 5.9% “only Spanish”.

Candidate evaluation

The PSOE candidate, Salvador Illa, is the best rated with 5.35 and is the only one who approves, in second place is the Esquerra candidate, Pere Aragonés, with 4.86. In third position is the En Comú Podem candidate, Jessica Albiach, with a 4.16. Below 4, is the Junts candidate, Carles Puigdemont, with 3.83.

Illa once again heads the list as “the candidate most prepared to resolve the relevant issues in Catalonia”, according to 25.3% of respondents. And he is also the candidate who inspires the most confidence of all (23%).

Preference as President

24.8% want Salvador Illa to be the President of the Generalitat after the regional elections, 17% want it to be Puigdemont and 14.6% want it to be the Esquerra candidate, Pere Aragonés.

As for who Catalans prefer as president of the Spanish government at the moment, 42.6% prefer Pedro Sánchez. In second place, 11.5% point to Alberto Núñez Feijóo, and in third place to Yolanda Díaz with 8.6%.

Main problems in Catalonia

Independence is the main problem for 20.5% of those surveyed, followed by political problems in general for 16.5% and for 6.4% it is the economic crisis and rising prices.

These and other data are collected in the pre-election survey carried out from April 11 to 22 with 8,905 interviews.

Press release